Listening to the various commentators about the state of the Midwest’s economy it is hard to get an accurate picture of the overall health of the region. What would an economic recovery in Limerick look like? Is it already happening? If it is happening, when will it be complete? When will Limerick be back to pre-recession levels? And just how bad did it get?

One crude measurement of how the economy of Limerick is progressing is by comparing the levels of unemployment in Limerick from pre and post recession. The CSO publish figures for the numbers of unemployed people in Limerick city, Limerick county, Kilmallock and Newcastle West from March 2002 to date. They give some indication of the health of Limerick’s economy over the past 15 years. I have included the full table below but it’s worth looking at four months in particular to get an overall picture of the the last 15 years.

In March 2002 there was 15,352 people unemployed in Limerick city and county. This figure dropped down to 13,506 in November 2005. November 2005 represents the best month Limerick had in terms of unemployment figures in the last 14 years. There is an theory that every economy has a natural rate of unemployment, that is a figure combining both structural and frictional unemployment which would be expected to hold steady in a long term economy outside of cyclical influences. For Limerick that figure would appear to be somewhere between 13,500 and 15,000 people considering the overall health of the National economy at that time. With this figure in mind, just how bad did things get in the recession?

By August 2010 the number of people signing on as unemployed had reached a staggering 46,830. It is worth reflecting on the number. It is over three times as high as unemployment was in in the stable years from 2002 to 2006. It represents the collapse of Ireland’s economic sovereignty (as played out county by county), it represents the return of mass emigration after 20 years of inward migration but more than that it represents on a human scale the level of damage that Limerick suffered in a extraordinarily short period of time. Every one of those figures is an individual who had to defer their plans and was unable to live the life they wanted to. Collectively it is the stark figure of families separated by unemployment, of the struggles the Midwest endured along with the rest of the country. It is a number that still echoes throughout the region. 46,830 represents 24.24% of the entire population of the county. It is a tragic figure and it is one we should remember when we speak about the reality of unemployment in Limerick.

It is important to though to acknowledge that from that nadir things have improved. The most recent figure for people signing on is from November 2016 and is 22,288. It is a huge credit to the people of the city and the county collectively the economy of the region has recovered. There is a prevailing sense that any recovery is exaggerated or not being felt outside Dublin and the east coast but these figures do indicate there has been a substantial reduction in the number of the people registered as unemployed.

At 22,288 people the unemployment rate is still at a high figure, certainly too high a figure to forget how much hard work still lies ahead but it is important to acknowledge how much has been achieved. The below graph demonstrates the massive economic shock Limerick suffered in from July 2007 to August 2010, combined with the period of stability beforehand and the relative recovery that has occurred since.

It is worth comparing the above graph with a graph which represents the entire country.

It is interesting to post these figures because, as mentioned, there is a perception that Limerick’s recovery still lags behind Dublin and the east coast. It is quite clear that there has been a substantial recovery in terms of figures. It is also quite clear that Limerick is somewhat in sync with the rest of the country.

In order to be sure that these figures don’t represent emigration it is worth noting that the population of Limerick has actually increased over the last 5 years, from 191,809 in 2011 to 195,175 in 2016. While this is a very modest increase for the county the size of Limerick it is encouraging that the number didn’t stay static or decline. As the population is increasing and the unemployment rate is improving it is clear that the economy is recovering somewhat.

Limerick	Number
Population 2011 (Number)	191,809
Population 2016 (Number)	195,175
Actual change since previous census (Number)	3,366
Percentage change since previous census (%)	1.8
Limerick City
Population 2011 (Number)	57,106
Population 2016 (Number)	58,319
Actual change since previous census (Number)	1,213
Percentage change since previous census (%)	2.1
Limerick County
Population 2011 (Number)	134,703
Population 2016 (Number)	136,856
Actual change since previous census (Number)	2,153
Percentage change since previous census (%)	1.6

Of course, these figures are blunt instruments. They do not reveal how many people returned into education, are on work placement schemes or are not receiving assistance. Crucially these figures do not tell us who is actually working. We know from a recent Central Bank study that the Participation Rate in the Irish Labour Force has not yet recovered to it’s pre-crash levels. It currently stands at 60% as opposed to a pre-crash high of 64%. These figures also do not reveal that nature of the work, if the work is permanent or contract. At best they give another indication that Limerick is on the right path. Taken with other figures such as the 14% house price rise in Limerick in 2016 and the increase in FDI jobs in the Midwest it is clear that a recovery of sorts has taken hold in Limerick.

The city and county are still some distance from the heyday of November 2005 but it is important that we acknowledge that things are getting better if only to discuss what happens next and how we can use this recovery to ensure everyone benefits from the improvements as they come. We need to ensure that workers aren’t being exploited by instruments like zero hour contracts or unfair work practices. It is important that we do take the time to acknowledge that even if we haven’t recovered to pre-crash levels that at least we are in the midst of a recovery. These figures remind of us where we have come from, and how much we still have to improve on. 46,830 in August 2010 to 22,288 in November 2016 is a significant change, even if the numbers do not tell us the full story.

 

 

 

 

Figures for the numbers of unemployed in Limerick month on month from March 2002 to November 2016.

Social Welfare Office	2002M01	2002M02	2002M03	2002M04	2002M05	2002M06	2002M07	2002M08	2002M09	2002M10	2002M11	2002M12
Limerick County			7676	7382	7423	8054	8583	8593	7927	7784	7714	8281
Kilmallock			874	771	808	867	910	897	781	789	806	905
Limerick City			5878	5738	5780	6325	6742	6769	6281	6157	6088	6526
Newcastle West			924	873	835	862	931	927	865	838	820	850
	2003M01	2003M02	2003M03	2003M04	2003M05	2003M06	2003M07	2003M08	2003M09	2003M10	2003M11	2003M12
Limerick County	8540	8760	8572	8664	8097	8786	9262	9273	8263	7854	7697	8123
Kilmallock	948	961	946	936	895	933	1017	1042	903	870	861	956
Limerick City	6709	6879	6720	6812	6310	6902	7217	7221	6508	6157	5987	6280
Newcastle West	883	920	906	916	892	951	1028	1010	852	827	849	887
	2004M01	2004M02	2004M03	2004M04	2004M05	2004M06	2004M07	2004M08	2004M09	2004M10	2004M11	2004M12
Limerick County	8166	8271	8154	7800	7615	8269	8674	8676	7772	7219	6938	7245
Kilmallock	962	928	880	854	811	859	939	947	841	821	788	827
Limerick City	6264	6394	6322	6052	5941	6502	6776	6773	6063	5522	5308	5538
Newcastle West	940	949	952	894	863	908	959	956	868	876	842	880
	2005M01	2005M02	2005M03	2005M04	2005M05	2005M06	2005M07	2005M08	2005M09	2005M10	2005M11	2005M12
Limerick County	7273	7241	7195	6834	6830	7488	7977	8019	7152	6823	6753	7106
Kilmallock	838	818	765	723	710	763	818	813	762	719	757	815
Limerick City	5516	5475	5479	5188	5212	5781	6146	6163	5479	5203	5113	5356
Newcastle West	919	948	951	923	908	944	1013	1043	911	901	883	935
	2006M01	2006M02	2006M03	2006M04	2006M05	2006M06	2006M07	2006M08	2006M09	2006M10	2006M11	2006M12
Limerick County	7170	7204	6983	6863	6982	7810	8182	8253	7205	6888	6889	7314
Kilmallock	782	811	777	773	773	849	917	920	798	811	819	881
Limerick City	5426	5431	5293	5189	5337	6025	6257	6327	5530	5205	5088	5382
Newcastle West	962	962	913	901	872	936	1008	1006	877	872	982	1051
	2007M01	2007M02	2007M03	2007M04	2007M05	2007M06	2007M07	2007M08	2007M09	2007M10	2007M11	2007M12
Limerick County	7278	7375	7252	7227	7243	7967	8421	8362	7395	7286	7630	8236
Kilmallock	871	871	821	855	828	884	928	937	822	814	872	976
Limerick City	5347	5434	5362	5338	5400	6020	6349	6282	5526	5468	5704	6123
Newcastle West	1060	1070	1069	1034	1015	1063	1144	1143	1047	1004	1054	1137
	2008M01	2008M02	2008M03	2008M04	2008M05	2008M06	2008M07	2008M08	2008M09	2008M10	2008M11	2008M12
Limerick County	8545	9004	9583	9373	9911	10710	11448	12048	11457	11836	12864	13999
Kilmallock	988	994	1082	1024	1094	1219	1286	1300	1305	1415	1526	1722
Limerick City	6255	6630	7101	6926	7350	7928	8530	8970	8431	8616	9295	10044
Newcastle West	1302	1380	1400	1423	1467	1563	1632	1778	1721	1805	2043	2233
	2009M01	2009M02	2009M03	2009M04	2009M05	2009M06	2009M07	2009M08	2009M09	2009M10	2009M11	2009M12
Limerick County	15743	17176	17981	18456	19732	20922	21695	22086	21055	20326	20700	21375
Kilmallock	1944	2123	2245	2289	2324	2476	2596	2667	2523	2577	2628	2762
Limerick City	11228	12188	12646	13155	14080	14973	15557	15817	15091	14403	14715	15092
Newcastle West	2571	2865	3090	3012	3328	3473	3542	3602	3441	3346	3357	3521
	2010M01	2010M02	2010M03	2010M04	2010M05	2010M06	2010M07	2010M08	2010M09	2010M10	2010M11	2010M12
Limerick County	22010	21995	21703	21663	21794	22275	23148	23415	22236	21459	20580	20970
Kilmallock	2807	2832	2826	2793	2791	2840	2919	2898	2724	2653	2591	2707
Limerick City	15617	15574	15282	15324	15475	15819	16490	16778	16023	15332	14638	14779
Newcastle West	3586	3589	3595	3546	3528	3616	3739	3739	3489	3474	3351	3484
	2011M01	2011M02	2011M03	2011M04	2011M05	2011M06	2011M07	2011M08	2011M09	2011M10	2011M11	2011M12
Limerick County	21116	21038	20729	20700	20928	21728	22397	22611	21160	20534	20228	20339
Kilmallock	2724	2756	2697	2692	2686	2759	2884	2837	2679	2621	2571	2650
Limerick City	14857	14787	14589	14543	14801	15537	15946	16210	15159	14630	14350	14313
Newcastle West	3535	3495	3443	3465	3441	3432	3567	3564	3322	3283	3307	3376
	2012M01	2012M02	2012M03	2012M04	2012M05	2012M06	2012M07	2012M08	2012M09	2012M10	2012M11	2012M12
Limerick County	20396	20332	20034	19876	20131	20810	21333	21265	20178	19571	19038	19228
Kilmallock	2655	2658	2651	2609	2625	2726	2753	2725	2561	2536	2486	2563
Limerick City	14336	14296	14071	13972	14084	14752	15194	15162	14460	13926	13443	13504
Newcastle West	3405	3378	3312	3295	3422	3332	3386	3378	3157	3109	3109	3161
	2013M01	2013M02	2013M03	2013M04	2013M05	2013M06	2013M07	2013M08	2013M09	2013M10	2013M11	2013M12
Limerick County	19304	19239	19037	18754	18688	19151	19615	19573	18501	17691	17216	17539
Kilmallock	2549	2529	2565	2503	2522	2614	2577	2496	2365	2272	2243	2283
Limerick City	13577	13527	13322	13154	13104	13434	13872	14008	13334	12600	12214	12402
Newcastle West	3178	3183	3150	3097	3062	3103	3166	3069	2802	2819	2759	2854
	2014M01	2014M02	2014M03	2014M04	2014M05	2014M06	2014M07	2014M08	2014M09	2014M10	2014M11	2014M12
Limerick County	17511	17430	17061	16955	16724	17240	17801	17579	16310	15474	15146	15358
Kilmallock	2292	2268	2204	2204	2165	2200	2204	2146	1977	1912	1890	1902
Limerick City	12415	12357	12144	12094	12006	12427	12965	12812	11966	11276	10963	11119
Newcastle West	2804	2805	2713	2657	2553	2613	2632	2621	2367	2286	2293	2337
	2015M01	2015M02	2015M03	2015M04	2015M05	2015M06	2015M07	2015M08	2015M09	2015M10	2015M11	2015M12
Limerick County	15025	14763	14409	14160	14267	15043	15662	15444	14344	13620	13339	13600
Kilmallock	1893	1873	1834	1789	1778	1832	1878	1883	1719	1698	1666	1719
Limerick City	10841	10665	10412	10206	10317	11019	11537	11357	10665	10022	9787	9957
Newcastle West	2291	2225	2163	2165	2172	2192	2247	2204	1960	1900	1886	1924
	2016M01	2016M02	2016M03	2016M04	2016M05	2016M06	2016M07	2016M08	2016M09	2016M10	2016M11
Limerick County	13437	13270	13046	12724	12831	13528	13774	13795	12126	11473	11144
Kilmallock	1702	1671	1652	1569	1566	1629	1618	1664	1464	1372	1339
Limerick City	9831	9710	9494	9387	9455	10043	10271	10262	9056	8558	8297
Newcastle West	1904	1889	1900	1768	1810	1856	1885	1869	1606	1543	1508